Deep Operations...
The Russians don't blitz, they strangle like a Boa...
The Russians have spent the last few weeks demonstrating their operational prowess, after all they came up with the concept, but I don’t think the scale of their success is appreciated.
A representation of the links between the technical, tactical, operational, theater strategic, strategic, grand strategic, and institutional levels of war by Daniel Sukman1.
The Russians mobilized, according to the Western media, 190k soldiers (upper estimate). We know the Russians kept a portion in reserve. This force went against an army of at least 250k2, plus the 100s of 1000s of reservists who’ve acquired experience over the last ~8 years of the conflict3. The Russian force is stretched over a front line that is ~1700km long. That is approximately ~500km longer than the front of Operation Barbarossa. The Germans had just about ~3.8 million men manning the front. That’s in the vicinity of ~3000 men per km vs Russia’s 111 (If we assume Russia has 190k soldiers and used all of them.). The only way to comprehend such a ridiculous undertaking is by understanding that the Russians were always going to outmaneuver the Ukrainians, to minimize their numerical advantage.
The Russian decided to start with a text book demonstration of Deep Operations. An airborne assault, ~75km deep to seize the Antonov airport. Textbook says 70-80kms deep.
From: Наступление армии и стрелкового корпуса по предвоенным взглядам4
This gave the Russians a land bridge to Kiev through Chernobyl (Pripyat marshes), while also delivering a huge psychological blow (operational shock5) to Ukraine’s army. Panicked, they decided to concentrate a large portion of their military around Kiev, assuming the Russians would attempt to seize it. But the Russians never even tried to, instead focusing their attention in the South. They seized Kherson, Melitopol, and gained control of the North Crimean Canal.
This is why anyone claiming the Russians attempted a Blitz should be immediately disregarded. The Russians aren’t Germans, they don’t aim for Total Annihilation. They aim for encirclements and then slowly bleed you out. It’s a brutal, painful, sometimes slow, sometimes fast, yet very effective way to win. Ask Generalfeldmarschall Friedrich Paulus.
As a reminder, the Soviet define their Spetsnaz (Special Forces/SOF) as Diversionary Troops. From Inside the Soviet Army by Suvorov:
Now the media states the Russians have stalled, yet they have joined Crimea with Donetsk, and are now on the verge of transforming the Sea of Azov into Lake Azov.
The Russians have outmaneuvered the Ukrainians, and no matter how many times mainstream media or social media tells you otherwise, understand that the speed of an armored column is in no way proportional to the speed of information. A ~20km advance in a day is big, an ~80km deep airborne assault is huge. This is war not a video game.
The Russians have continued to demonstrate their technological edge, employing precision strikes to damage Ukraine’s:
Air Force
Anti Air and Fire support
Command & Control structure
Logistics
Recruitment Centers
Preventing the commitment of uncommitted forces is a key component of Deep Operations, this is why it’s critical for the Russians to limit the effectiveness of Ukraine’s reserve, and potential foreign legion. By striking fear with their missiles, the Russians are limiting Ukraine’s ability to recruit and train a local militia. This is easily verifiable as Ukraine’s government decided to release prisoners to fight6. There’s no need for such a drastic measure if millions of locals are willing to take up arms. By disrupting Ukraine’s logistics, destroying their fuel depot, the Ukrainian’s have been left with no meaningful way of counterattacking. This is also easily provable. Notice how every claim of a Ukrainian counter attack is either the recapture of terrain the Russians left days/weeks prior7, or simply something that didn’t happen8. The Russians are demonstrating what is arguably maneuver warfare at its finest, because it has to deal with all the modern gizmos, neither the Soviets or the Marines ever had to face.
The Russians are showing everyone why Europeans scrambling for bigger defense spending is not going to work. It’s not the tech that is winning, most of the ammunition being used is unguided, it’s good operational planning with some brute force thrown in for good measure. The Americans understand this, in fact, while the American Military Industrial Complex is lobbying EU governments to buy their expensive products, the US DOD is reviewing a lot of their high end tools. Some F-22’s are being retired early, and F-35 orders are being reduced in favor of a modernized, 50 year old plane, the F-159. The Americans have unloaded half of all their Javelin stockpiles into Ukraine10, and have decided not only to not replenish their stockpile but in fact reduce their yearly order11. We know the Marines are already undergoing a serious revision to better deal with the Pacific12, we can expect the rest of the US armed forces to follow.
from IISS13
Ukraine’s budget pales in comparison to other European states. At ~4.2 billion dollars in 202014, it is smaller than Denmark’s15, yet can deliver more firepower than EU NATO states.
from global firepower coalition builder16.
We don’t need more money, we need a Soviet style purge, starting with the politics and their procurement committees…
Buy Med.
ps: The information war is amplifying the hypocrisies of the West. Verified and confirmed videos of war crimes being committed against Russians POWs are considered fair game while photos of dead bodies (likely Ukrainian civilians) are immediately considered evidence of a genocide. The recent claims around Bucha are very problematic. A quick look at the claims highlights enormous holes in the story.
The Russians left the area around March 30th. This can be proven by Satellite images or Ukrainian claims of having retaken Bucha on March 31st17 following their very successful (imaginary) counter offensive.
Some bodies are near what look like mortar hits.
Some bodies have white armbands.
The Americans are in no way dumb enough to get involved in this but they are amplifying this story via Social Media. If the objective isn’t clear yet, their goal is to destroy the EU’s remaining industry, and the EU commission Bureaucrats are happy to go along with it hoping they get to keep their comfortable seat.
The Financial Time (The City) has already started mocking the EU, “This was supposed to be the year European wages started to catch up with inflation, but the economic fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leaves many EU workers facing even bigger pay cuts in real terms, according to union officials and executives.”18 Michael Vassiliadis, president of Germany’s union representing workers in the mining, chemical sector, announced nearly 600k jobs are at risk, and BASF stated that any further sanctions would guarantee the (partial) shutdown of its Ludwigshafen establishment (biggest in the world19)20. This particular site is an integral component of the global value chain of both animal and human care (amino acids, vitamins, enzymes…etc)21, disruption in its production would be a disaster. As John Robb points out, “"Empathy triggers are used to mobilize network swarms, which is, as we have seen with the response to the invasion of Ukraine, a key element of network warfare”.
Great systems have rigorous and efficient decision making tools designed to evaluate the means of which they hope to achieve their desired outcome. It takes time and effort, requires (solid) data and intense debates. This guarantees that decision makers are not guided by their own biases, but by logic and reason.
As Michael J. Mazaar illustrates in his book, Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy, “Rather than what has been called logic of consequences”, sometimes decision makers end up being guided by, “a logic of appropriateness, a form of judgment in which decision makers are concerned about doing what is right or appropriate given their role and their circumstances”. A logic of appropriateness, in a world traveling at the speed of light, is proving to be disastrous. There is now a distinct possibility that our leaders are no longer in control, incapable of containing the Network Swarm (Open-Source Warfare).
